Abstract

This study examines claims concerning the demographic growth of Greece and the historical role attributed to the Arvanite population. By comparing population estimates from the fifteenth century to the modern era, the analysis evaluates arguments suggesting that Arvanites constituted the primary source of Greece’s population increase. Medieval settlement records and Venetian administrative sources are reviewed to assess the scale of Arvanite migrations into Greek territories. The study highlights methodological weaknesses in linear demographic extrapolations and emphasizes the importance of assimilation, identity transformation, and socio-political processes in shaping population statistics. Rather than supporting monocausal explanations, the findings underscore the complexity of population formation in Greece and the limitations of ethnic determinism in historical demography.

Arvanite population growth

According to demographic reconstructions based on the territorial boundaries of the modern Greek state, the population of Greece around the year 1800 is estimated at approximately 2.25 million inhabitants. Over the subsequent two centuries, this population increased roughly fivefold, reaching approximately 11.2 million inhabitants by 2004. This significant demographic expansion has prompted questions regarding the historical sources of population growth and the ethnic composition of the population.

Some authors have attempted to project earlier population figures backward in time by focusing on specific population groups, particularly the Arvanites. In the fifteenth century, estimates suggest the presence of approximately 81,200 Arvanites concentrated in certain regions of Greece. If one applies a hypothetical growth model analogous to that of the overall Greek population—namely, a fivefold increase every two centuries—this Arvanite population would have reached approximately 406,000 individuals by the seventeenth century, around 2.2 million by the nineteenth century, and potentially 11 million in the twenty-first century. From this perspective, it has been argued that population growth in Greece could be attributed primarily, or even exclusively, to the Arvanite population.

Such reasoning, however, raises critical questions rather than providing definitive conclusions. If Arvanites constituted such a substantial demographic component, why are they not recorded as a distinct population group in modern demographic statistics? How and why did Arvanites come to be classified as Hellenes, while the reverse categorization did not occur? These questions highlight broader issues of ethnic identification, assimilation, and the historical construction of national identities in the Balkans.

Historical sources do attest to multiple waves of Arvanite settlement in medieval Greece. In 1330, Manuel Kantakouzenos reportedly transferred approximately 8,000 Albanians to the Despotate of the Morea. In 1383, Catalan authorities introduced an unspecified number of Arvanites into Locris, Boeotia, and the northern and western fringes of Attica; based on the extent of settlement areas and the number of villages involved, later estimates suggest approximately 20,000 individuals. In 1384, Nerio Acciaioli brought 800 Arvanite cavalrymen to Corinthia, who, together with their families, are estimated to have numbered around 3,200 individuals.

Further migrations are recorded in the early fifteenth century. In 1405, Theodore Palaiologos is said to have settled approximately 10,000 Arvanites in the Despotate of the Morea, while in the same year Centurione Zaccaria introduced an estimated 15,000 Arvanites to the western Peloponnese. Venetian authorities also transferred Arvanite populations to Euboea in 1402 and 1425; based on geographic and settlement considerations, these movements have been estimated at approximately 10,000 individuals. Finally, in 1418, Antonio Acciaioli reportedly settled an estimated 15,000 Arvanites in the Mesogeia region of Attica. Collectively, these figures yield a total estimate of approximately 81,200 Arvanites.

This estimate, attributed to Mpiri, has been characterized as methodologically weak and lacking firm epistemic grounding. Nevertheless, it may not be entirely implausible. Supporting evidence is sometimes drawn from the Annali Veneti (7β), in which the Venetian General Procurator Stefano Magno states that the Arvanite population in Greece around 1453 numbered approximately 30,000. While this figure is considerably lower than Mpiri’s estimate, it nonetheless confirms a significant Arvanite presence in late medieval Greece.

Overall, while Arvanite migrations undeniably contributed to the demographic and social history of Greece, simplistic extrapolations that attribute the entirety of Greek population growth to this group alone fail to account for complex processes of assimilation, intermarriage, differential fertility and mortality, migration, and shifting ethnic identities over time. A nuanced and multidisciplinary approach remains essential for understanding the demographic evolution of Greece.